From August to October 2026, the Brazilian mergers and acquisitions market saw fewer deals and bigger tickets. Foreign strategic buyers led the largest transactions, critical minerals commanded a premium and payment in stock returned as a currency in a high real-rate environment. This is the summary of Elit Capital’s report; the full version, with deal-by-deal analysis and the 4Q26 radar, is available in PDF at the end of this page.
968
deals through Sep/26
−31% y/y in count
R$ 251.6 bn
capital deployed through Sep/26
+18% y/y in value
44%
of deals with disclosed value
value base is partial
13.75%
Selic after the Sep 16 cut
−50 bp in the period
What defined the period
- Fewer deals, bigger tickets. Deal count fell 31% through September, but capital deployed rose 18%. Value is concentrated in a few transactions above US$ 1 billion.
- Foreign strategic capital. The period’s seven largest deals have buyers from France, the US, Mexico, Sweden, Colombia and Australia — all strategic, not financial.
- Critical minerals at a premium. Serra Verde closed its sale (US$ 2.8 bn) and Lynas announced the acquisition of the Caldeira project (A$ 968 m). The segment totals US$ 6 billion in M&A this year, more than double 2025.
- Stock as currency. Nexa, Lynas, Yduqs/Afya and part of Serra Verde were paid in stock: with high real rates, buyers preserve cash and sellers accept the buyer’s risk.
- Asset sales to deleverage. Motiva sold airports at 8.8x EV/EBITDA, above its own multiple; Votorantim swapped control of Nexa for 7% of Boliden; Prudential exited emerging markets.
Selected transactions — August to October 2026
| Target | Buyer (origin) | Sector | Disclosed value | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Prudential do Brasil + Mexico | CNP Assurances (FR) | Insurance | US$ 4.025 bn | Signed Oct 20 |
| Grupo Serra Verde | USA Rare Earth (US) | Rare earths | ~US$ 2.8 bn | Closed Sep 3 |
| CPC Holding (20 airports) | ASUR (MX) | Airports | R$ 12.21 bn (EV) | Closed Sep 1 |
| Nexa Resources (64.68%) | Boliden (SE) | Zinc and silver | US$ 1.31 bn | Signed Aug 27 |
| Brava Energia (~51%) | Ecopetrol (CO) | Oil and gas | ~US$ 1.2 bn | Closed Aug/26 |
| Meteoric (Caldeira, MG) | Lynas (AU) | Rare earths | A$ 968 m | Announced Oct 1 |
| Desktop (72.83%) | Claro / América Móvil (MX) | Fiber optics | R$ 1.75 bn | Closed Oct 1 |
| Afya | Yduqs (BR) | Education | Stock merger | Announced Sep 23 |
Four takeaways on deal flow
- Concentration. Two deals (Prudential and Serra Verde) account for 54% of sample value; the top four, 83%.
- Foreign buyers. All seven deals with a disclosed price have a foreign buyer — six of them listed strategics.
- Payment currency. Four of the eight deals use stock, in whole or in part; cash dominates in insurance and infrastructure.
- Total market. Through September, there were 968 deals and R$ 251.6 billion, including 167 venture capital rounds (R$ 9.7 bn) and 62 private equity deals (R$ 55.0 bn), per TTR Data.
Outlook for 4Q26
- Rates. Copom meets on Nov 3–4 and Dec 8–9, and the Focus survey projects a 13.25% Selic at year-end. Further cuts lower the cost of leveraged mid-market acquisitions, but the effect on valuations should show up in 2027.
- Post-election. With the runoff held on Oct 25, processes postponed pending the result are likely to return to the table. The new administration’s fiscal signaling will be the main driver of risk premium and FX.
- Execution over announcements. The quarter should bring closings and tender offers (Desktop, Santander Brasil, Braskem) and regulatory approvals (Nexa, Prudential, Yduqs/Afya).
- Where to look. Carve-outs from family groups and conglomerates, discounted take-privates on B3, critical minerals, concession infrastructure, and consolidation in education, healthcare and insurance.
What this means for the middle market
Strategic buyers remain active but selective. For owners considering a sale, the quarter favors preparing processes for 2027: audited financials, quality of earnings and structures with an earn-out or partial payment in stock, which narrow the gap between asking and offered prices in a high real-rate environment.
In the full report
- Analysis of each transaction: structure, valuation and Elit Capital’s read, including multiples and premiums paid.
- Deal flow chart by disclosed value.
- 4Q26 radar, with the next milestones for seven deals and events and what to watch in each.
- Methodology, sources and FX criteria.
Period covered: transactions announced or completed between August 1 and October 31, 2026. Sources: TTR Data (Jan–Sep 2026), Central Bank of Brazil (Copom and Focus), Alvarez & Marsal and company announcements; Elit Capital analysis. Material prepared exclusively for information and market analysis purposes; it does not constitute an investment recommendation, an offer to buy or sell securities, or financial, legal or tax advice.